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What next for Kosovo?
Written by: Nina Brenjo
A Kosovo Albanian man passes in front of a monument to ethnic Albanian guerrillas killed during the 1998-99 war against Serb forces. REUTERS\Hazir Reka
The talks about the final status of Kosovo, which have dragged on for months, are officially over. What happens next seems to be anybody's guess, says the Balkans commentator Micha Glenny, writing in Britain's New Statesman. Kosovo Albanians are planning to declare independence soon and Serbia is refusing to listen to any argument containing the word 'independence', so can we expect another war in the province? Officially at least, both the Kosovo Albanian and Serbian sides have offered guarantees that they're not planning return to war in the next few months. But the reality on the ground may be different. "An incident, a provocation, and the security situation could unravel very quickly," LA Times says a senior official with the U.N. mission currently governing the province, according to the LA Times. "We have been very patient until now. But we fought and died just to establish a country. We could lose control in a second," Kushtrim Mahmutaj, who fought Serbian forces as a teenager, tells the paper. What with shadowy extremist groups emerging on both sides, the danger of renewed conflict is real, thinks the LA Times. Britain's Financial Times agrees. Kosovo officials should get the backing of the European Union before they declare independence. But even if they do, Serbs in northern Kosovo and Bosnian Serbs won't want to sit still, while Russia might want to "(stir) up trouble", according to the FT. Serbia, for its part, has mentioned an "action plan" in case Kosovo declares unilateral independence. But insiders insist that this is mere posturing, writes Ian Traynor in Britain's Guardian. "Nobody wants Kosovo independent, of course. But it's clear (Serbia) can't do much about it," Dragan Bujosevic, Belgrade commentator and TV chat show host, tells Traynor. When it comes to non-violent steps Serbia could adopt in order to undermine Kosovo's new state, there's been a talk of imposing a trade embargo against the province and cutting off electricity, writes Joshua Keating, researcher at the Washington-based Foreign Policy magazine. The trade embargo would hardly do much harm to the province as it would simply move underground, says Dejan Anastasijevic of Serbia's weekly Vreme, writing in Balkan Insight. As for electricity, this could prove trickier for Kosovo Albanians to deal with, but it would hit thousands of Serbs living in the region - something that Serbia would not like. One solution which has been championed by some commentators is the partition of the province. Glenny claims that all sides consider the split to be the inevitable consequence of any decision on Kosovo, but the "diplomatic cowardice has ensured that nobody has been prepared to articulate this clearly in public". "If this is what is going to happen in practice, why risk a war over what we call it in theory? Why not simply regularise the reality, and negotiate a peaceable partition?" agrees Britain's Daily Telegraph. A de facto partition of the province is the main reason the European Union is reluctantly going along with the U.S. recognition of Kosovo's independence, says Glenny. The recent internal disagreements over the issue have exposed it as an incompetent manager of affairs on its own continent. This, according to Glenny, is just what both U.S. and Russia had wanted. In addition, Russia is only using Kosovo as a "handy stick" to beat the West with and show it still counts, says the International Herald Tribune. Possibly more than that, Russia is trying to stop further NATO expansion in the Balkans, according to Radio Free Europe's Melazim Koci. "What began as a humanitarian mission to stop ethnic cleansing has become part of a new balance of power in Europe", Toronto Star quotes a veteran BBC Balkan correspondent Humphrey Hawksley, writing in Yale University publication YaleGlobal Online. Even the war NATO waged against Serbia in 1999 was never just about Kosovo, says Eric Jansson in the Balkan Insight. It may still be early to predict what will happen with Kosovo and, indeed, with the whole region. But whatever the outcome, it is likely to depend heavily on the interests of the main international players.
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6 responses to “What next for Kosovo?”
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12 Dec 2007 15:21:29 GMT
Just a note about the picture... The memorial the old man is walking by is not just of "guerillas". If you notice the left side, you see the men in uniform. On the right side of that memorial are civilians; old men and women.
13 Dec 2007 10:18:19 GMT
QUESTION: What is Kosovo?
ANSWER: A province in southern Serbia. It is 4,200 square miles, just more than twice the size of tri-county metro Detroit. About 90% of Kosovo's 2 million residents are ethnic Albanians; the rest are Serbs. Q: Who are the Serbs and why don't they let the majority ethnic Albanians control Kosovo? A: Serbs are Slavs who migrated to the Balkans from northeastern Europe around 700. Their first kingdom included Kosovo. St. Sava, their patron, founded the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo, and numerous monasteries were built beginning in the early 13th Century. Some of Christendom's most stirring art is found on the ancient walls of monasteries in Kosovo, several of which have been damaged or destroyed in fighting with Albanians. Serbs pledge never to cede Kosovo as it is the cradle of their nationhood and religion. Q: How do Albanians figure in? A: They are descendants of the Illyrians, who have inhabited the region for more than 2,300 years. A timeline 1389: Thousands of Serbs (some Albanians, too) lose their lives to an overwhelming Ottoman force on a field in Kosovo. The battle effectively slows the Ottoman drive to conquer Europe but ends the Serb kingdom and leads to nearly 500 years of Ottoman Turk occupation. 1912: Serbia regains independence in 1878, but without Kosovo, which remains under Ottoman rule. In 1912, Serbs retake Kosovo by force and hold on to it over the objections of the new nation of Albania, created in 1912 from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire. Serbia prevails in the dispute with the help of the Western powers. World War II: Most of Kosovo becomes part of an Italian-controlled Greater Albania. Other parts are occupied by the Germans and Bulgarians. Tens of thousands of Serbs are driven out or killed. Since 1945: Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito gives Kosovo full autonomy in 1974. Fears of growing ethnic-Albanian dominance in Kosovo lead to calls from Kosovo Serbs for a crackdown on Albanian separatists, culminating in a government decision to take away Kosovo's autonomy in 1989. In 1998, a major crackdown begins against separatist rebels. 1999: The crackdown leads to a mass exodus of ethnic Albanians -- perhaps as many as 1 million flee as Serbian troops and paramilitaries fight the guerilla Kosovo Liberation Army. Soon NATO troops and aircraft take on the Serb forces, establishing a precarious peace. .13 Dec 2007 10:22:27 GMT
There have been "testing of the waters" about partition in the past and after all no one even dares to talk about it. Partition of Kosovo mean war, simple as that. This "option" is considered by mainly two categories: 1. Gun Lobbies representatives, or 2. Ignorants on the matter.
If you start "partitioning" Balkan states into counties, one would be greatly surprised to see that almost every state is comprised of ethnically pure counties, meaning, counties with only Serbian population, only Croatian, Macedonian, Albanian, Slovenian, Hungarian. Yes, I know, it shows that these people cannot trust each other and cannot share anything with each other, but this is the sad reality, result of centuries of wars for scarce resources. The simplistic view of partitioning of Kosovo comes as a lack of information abour Balkans in general, the main reason that Balkan suffered in the last 20 years of wars being this kind of simplistic view of early 20-th century that left people and nations separated in different states because "big powers" knew only how to calculate areas and territories in their trading, while human element was unconsiderable. Once again, Kosovo partition means war, this time probably the biggest one that Balkans have ever seen. Albanians are a considerable majority or minority in at least 5 states in the Balkans. Serbs as well. Not a single Balkan country will escape inclusion in this regional war, including Greece and Turkey. While many of you are hoping for a boost in "gun shares", the rest of us are scared to death. Kosovo deserves its independence. We all don't deserve another war. Be wise and refrain yourselves from scary scenarios.13 Dec 2007 10:24:11 GMT
While we are at images, I noticed that at yesterdayâs rally in Pristina, Serbian Albanians in Kosovo carried placards calling for "the Serbs to burn in the hell forever", as reported by a few newspapers in the UK.
This phrase sounds very reminiscent of calls for "the Americans/British to burn in the hell for ever" around the globe, including London. I wonder whether any newspaper editor/owner in the UK has noticed any similarity between these two âdemocraticâ practices in certain parts of the world?13 Feb 2008 11:42:01 GMT
This is extremely complex issue and bottom line is not what is stated above, but it is forming Great Albania. Kosovo Albanians already pushing for referendum to join Kosovo to Albania and other parts from neighboring countries: Macedonia and Montenegro. Human rights and minority rights are on very low level and after they proclaim independence they will drove out remaining minorities with great help from US and EU which are supporting once more ethnic cleansing of Serbs accusing Serbs themselves that is their fault. They (US &EU) help Croatians to expel 250,000 Serbs from Croatia so 120,000 remaining Serbs in Kosovo is a piece of cake. And who cares for those medieval monasteries and churches. They will remodel them with cannon shells and can be of use as new military bases... this is pathetic
23 Feb 2008 19:22:06 GMT
i want to use this opportunity to call on both sides,the Serbians and kosovo Albanians to embrace peace.i am an African,i leave and work in prishtina,is a big shame to see a place like this in Europe,let put behind what we see on TV about Africa,the worst place in Africa is better than kissoff and yet the Serbs call it their heart land,it shows that the Serbs don't regard the Albanians,as a neutral person i can tell you that the both sides can never leave in one peace.now kosovo is an independent state and nothing can change it,it's left for the government of Serbia to now look to the future and put the past behind,EU integration is a more better deal for them now,if am to advise EU,i will suggest incorporating both sides in to the European union as quick as possible to ease the growing tension.this is the only way to take Russia off the stage.Russia should put their money and military power to help poor country's and fight terro! rism like the Americans and not to create more conflicts in the Balkans