The world's relief agencies will be overwhelmed by a sharp rise in the number of people affected each year by climate-related disasters by 2015 unless the quantity and quality of aid improves, a report from international aid group Oxfam says.

"There is nothing inevitable about a future in which greater numbers of people die and are made destitute by natural hazards and conflict," the report says. "In a future of climate change, rising hazard and a proliferation of disasters, the world can still mitigate threats and reduce people's vulnerability to them."

Climate crises are projected to impact an average of more than 375 million people each year by 2015, up 54 percent from nearly 250 million now, as global warming leads to more extreme weather including droughts and floods and the poor crowd into densely populated city slums, the report says.

The figure does not include people hit by other disasters such as earthquakes and wars.

The report says the trend is likely to be driven by an increase in small- and medium-scale disasters, which often fail to make the headlines and attract the least humanitarian assistance.

To cope with the unprecedented need for assistance, spending on humanitarian aid needs to rise to at least $25 billion a year - or $50 per affected person - from around $14 billion in 2006, Oxfam says. It adds that an improved response, including greater efforts to strengthen people's longer-term vulnerability to disasters, will require far higher spending.

The report points out that if all wealthy countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development gave as much per head of their population as the top 10 most generous governments, global humanitarian aid would increase to $42 billion - a tiny fraction of the hundreds of billions poured into ailing financial systems in recent months.

"Decent aid, for every person in need, would be a bargain in comparison," it says.

The report also urges rich governments to allocate aid money more fairly, rather than according to political and security interests.

"The humanitarian system is a post-code lottery on a global scale," Oxfam GB's chief executive, Barbara Stocking, said in a statement. "The response is often fickle - too little, too late and not good enough. There must be a fundamental reform of the system so that those in need are its first and foremost priority."

The agency warns that climate change threatens its work to overcome poverty, and calls on rich nations to commit at U.N. talks to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that will keep global warming below a rise of 2 degrees Centigrade. It also wants them to provide at least $50 billion a year to help poor countries adapt to unavoidable climate change.

NEGLECTED CONFLICTS

Jane Cocking, Oxfam's humanitarian director, told AlertNet the world's humanitarian system also faces a heavy burden from long-running conflicts in places like Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan's western region of Darfur.

"When you look at where international humanitarian assistance goes, places like DRC, like Chad and Darfur are just dropping so far down the political agenda, it's appalling," she said. "We have to break the cycle of the political connections of humanitarian assistance."

The report notes the inequality in the amounts of aid allocated to different emergencies - for example, in 2004, an average of $1,241 was spent on each survivor of the Asian tsunami, while those caught up in Chad's humanitarian crisis received only $23 each.

Oxfam also criticises the global aid system for being too Western and focused on centralised responses to large, high-profile disasters. The report says humanitarian assistance must become more appropriate for local needs, and be delivered faster.

International aid agencies need to work more closely with governments and communities in poor countries on measures to protect people from disasters, it adds.

Cocking said those caught up in emergencies should also be consulted more: "People know what they need. They do not need a super-qualified expert from New York to take a week to get to where this has happened.

"The assistance which is most valued and has most impact on people's lives is that which they receive in the first few hours and the first few days."

If the world's humanitarian response system does not get extra funding or reform itself to become more nimble and flexible, the outcome will be deadly, the report warns.

"Whether or not there is the political will to do this will be one of the defining features of our age, and will dictate whether millions live or die," it says.

The full report, "The Right to Survive: the humanitarian challenge for the twenty-first century", can be downloaded from Oxfam's website.

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