Wed, 12:07 28 Jan 2009 GMT17

 
MEDIAWATCH: Cautious optimism after Nkunda arrest
28 Jan 2009 12:03:00 GMT
Written by: Joanne Tomkinson
Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda attends a rally in Rutshuru, 70 km (45 miles) north of Goma in eastern Congo, November 22, 2008. 
<BR>REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly
Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda attends a rally in Rutshuru, 70 km (45 miles) north of Goma in eastern Congo, November 22, 2008.
REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly

The capture of a rebel leader does not, of course, a lasting peace agreement make. Yet following the shock arrest of Congolese Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda in Rwanda last week, some of those watching the region say there are some new reasons to be optimistic - albeit cautiously so - over the future of Congo's protracted and deadly conflict.

"This unlikely partnership is a good sign for the war-torn region," says the Boston Globe, referring to the new agreement between former foes Congo and Rwanda which lead to Nkunda's arrest.

But there are a few important conditions if this chance at peace is to prosper, the Globe says.

Rwanda must not be allowed to try Nkunda, given its historical support of his group of Tutsi rebels, and there must also be trade-offs on the Congolese side too, the paper writes.

"If Congo asks for Nkunda's extradition, it should expect to be asked to turn over Hutu criminals from the Rwandan genocide still hiding in Congolese territory."

"Western governments can no longer afford to play only a passive role, lest the region shatter. The deadly consequences of that have been witnessed before," the paper concludes.

Britain's Times newspaper agrees, saying that this new spirit of cooperation between Congolese President Joseph Kabila and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, "offers a rare chance to end the almost continuous warfare in the heart of Africa".

"Warlordism, civil war, the lure of mineral wealth and the ambitions of Congo's neighbours have thwarted all attempts at a settlement, despite the U.N.'s biggest peacekeeping force of 17,000 troops. The new co-operation between Rwanda and Congo may at last give peace a slender chance," the paper writes.

The Washington Post is somewhat more downbeat about the effect of Nkunda's arrest and the joint Rwandan-Congolese operation to crush Rwandan Hutu rebels hiding in Congo.

Congo has let in more than 3,500 Rwandan soldiers to hunt for members of the ethnic Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which is partly comprised of groups connected to the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

But the Washington Post says that the presence of Rwandan troops in eastern Congo threatens to put Congolese citizens in harm's way. The paper's concern for civilians echoes demands by the United Nations that it should have a role in the joint military operations in order to ensure ordinary people are protected.

Many who have tried to return to their villages after hearing of Nkunda's capture feel no safer than before, the Post writes.

"They passed through today with all kinds of guns and new weapons," farmer Anastase Kazibaki, 25, told the Post, referring to the march of Rwandan troops through the village of Kibumba. "We were so afraid that we started packing our luggage again."

For civilians caught up in the middle of the joint operation, there are still immediate risks.

"They are coming to track the FDLRs, but the FDLRs look just like us," Simba Kambale, 27, a taxi driver, told the newspaper.

Yet for Rwanda's New Times, the new spirit of cooperation between Rwanda and Congo is a sign for optimism.

The paper says the international community's concerns come down to frustration at not being at the table when Rwanda and Congo struck a deal.

"This unprecedented "home grown" move has made many "experts" of the region go into over-drive because they were not involved in the decision," the New Times says.

Despite their professed concern for civilians, the United Nations has been spending close to $1 billion a year on its peacekeeping force in Congo with nothing to show on the ground, the New Times concludes. This new deal between African nations offers a fresh chance for peace in the troubled country.

The New York Times, meanwhile, says there is a separate worry - that a power vacuum will open as a result of Nkunda's arrest.

"There are still many other rebel groups haunting the hills of eastern Congo. General Nkunda's force was thought to number around 5,000 fighters, and many have simply melted back into the bush, possibly to fight on," the New York Times says.

Even more brutal figures like Jean Bosco Ntaganda, Nkunda's former chief of staff, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes, may take the chance to seize power, writes the paper.

Boston-based Christian Science Monitor, voices similar doubts about whether Rwanda will be able to neutralise the FDLR rebels as quickly or easily as it seems to think.

"Rwanda has said the joint operation will last only two weeks, but the members of the FDLR have settled in Congo and intermarried with locals since 1994. Moreover, the FDLR is expected to melt back into the jungle rather than fight against the better-organised Rwandan and Congolese forces, so rooting them out won't be easy."

Kenya's Daily Nation, however, says the new spirit of cooperation shouldn't just stop with the CNDP and FDLR.

"Rwandan and DRC officials say their joint offensive will last between 10 and 15 days. However, the two countries should extend the offensive against all similar groups in the region," the Daily Nation says.

Joseph Kony, leader of Ugandan rebel group the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which is now engaged in attacks driving people from north-eastern Congo into southern Sudan, is as important a target as Nkunda.

"Both the DRC and Uganda have enticed Mr Nkunda's and Mr Kony's outfits with enough carrots to constipate. It's time for big sticks," the Daily Nation writes.

"It shouldn't be forgotten though that some regional leaders bear responsibility for continued existence of these groups. This is especially so for Mr Kabila and Mr Kagame."

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Joanne Tomkinson joined AlertNet from Oxfam in 2007. She regularly scans the global coverage of emergencies and digests the most interesting highlights for AlertNet's MediaWatch section.

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