The cat seems to be escaping the bag - after months of rumors, there are now reports that some of the expelled aid agencies might return to Darfur.  According to Reuters AlertNet:

"Three U.S. aid groups expelled from Sudan three months ago are in talks to send new teams back into the country, relief workers said on Tuesday."

The article identifies the three agencies as CARE, Mercy Corps and Save the Children.  It seems that the agencies would return as "branches of their organizations affilliated to other countries" - i.e. Mercy Corps would return as Mercy Corps Scotland.

Personally, I think this is a mistake, tho not quite as, ummmm, cynical on this one as Mr. Crilly; at the least, I don't question the agencies' intentions. (Go ahead, call me naive if you must.)

That said, our messaging - aid agencies must return - doesn't seem to be evolving nearly as quickly as the situation on the ground.  When Sudan expelled thirteen aid organizations in March, the immediate concern was that this would spark a humanitarian crisis - images of thousands dying in the camps as food deliveries stopped, and health services disappeared.

Yet, by and large, this hasn't come to pass.  Certain areas like Zam Zam Camp have deteriorated, but overall the situation has stabilized.  At least so far.

As with anything else, it's a question of what's gained, and what's lost.  Allowing three or four agencies to return certainly adds more capacity on the ground.  Yet what of the costs?  What if the agencies' decision to return undermines overall humanitarian relief efforts?

If the expelled agencies rush to return, they set a dangerous precedent.  The Sudanese government may well conclude that it can act against aid agencies with impunity, confident that aid agencies will always bow to their demands.

Which raises a fundamental question - at what point does humanitarian action become so neutered that it simply serves as a political tool of the regime in power?  Especially if the regime in power exercises almost total control over who can work where, and do what.

To a great extent, this is already the case.  According to an April blog post by an aid worker expelled from Sudan:

"Every project an aid agency does needs a signed agreement with various government departments. To move into a new town or camp needs another agreement, which can take months to process. The government has taken all our assets, but has not yet agreed to hand them to other agencies. To buy new assets requires even more signed pieces of paper. Importing equipment not available in Sudan takes months to get through customs. All local staff appointments have to be approved by the government, who sit on the interview panel and shortlist candidates."

Given the Sudanese government's actions over the past few years - described by Eric Reeves as a  "long, brutal war of attrition directed at humanitarian aid efforts in Darfur" - it would be stunningly naive to assume that  Sudan would suddenly start to play nice.

What happens if the Sudanese Government orders agencies to stop doing any protection work, or stop all projects relating to gender-based violence?  What happens if the Sudanese Government orders agencies to implement programs to encourage displaced persons to return home, regardless of the risk facing the returnees?

And, if new agencies - or returning agencies - agree to additional restrictions, then what does that mean for all other humanitarian agencies in Sudan?  Would they then be bound in the same way, or risk expulsion if they didn't toe the line?

At the very least, accepting a deal with the Sudanese Government risks undermining whatever humanitarian space remains.  If the humanitarian situation has stabilized, is the return of three or four agencies worth the cost?

PS - the most recent information I have on the humanitarian situation dates from May - if anyone has more up-to-date analysis, would love to know.

PPS - I know, I know, I cut and pasted some of the analysis from earlier posts.  Tacky, but useful when one is in transit.

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