Natural disasters are on the rise and are increasingly being linked to climate change. But the truth is they are claiming fewer lives every year, even as the number of people affected soars. And far fewer would die if governments and aid agencies put more effort into prevention measures.

In 2007, natural disasters killed 17,000 people around the world, the lowest death toll in a decade, according to the Belgium-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

The lower number was partly because there were fewer earthquakes and volcanic eruptions than usual, but it also reflects better preparation and prevention.

According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), deaths from natural disasters during the 1970s stood at nearly 2 million. Between 1991 and 2000, the toll had fallen to around 665,600 people.

Yet, while the world is getting better at preventing deaths, the number of people affected by disasters each year is now three times higher than in the 1970s.

Measures to reduce the risk of disasters can lower the impact of natural hazards and save lives. Examples include planting mangroves in Vietnam and Bangladesh, to protect against storms and coastal erosion, and Chinese investment in flood control.

The $3.1 billion China spent on combating flooding between 1960 and 2000 is estimated to have averted economic losses of about $12 billion, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

And even the simplest measures in the poorest communities can make a huge difference - from early warning systems, evacuation and rescue training to first aid.

Aid specialists increasingly argue that donors should invest more money in preparing for disasters, reducing the amount they have to spend on responding to emergencies.

According to the United Nations, $1 invested in reducing the risk of disasters in developing countries saves around $7 in losses.

At a major conference in Kobe, Japan, in 2005, governments signed up to the 10-year Hyogo Framework for Action - a U.N.-backed global strategy to reduce disaster risk, hammered out after the devastating tsunami that killed 230,000 people around the Indian Ocean in December 2004.

One of the most powerful hurricanes on record slams into the southeastern United States, packing ferocious winds and killing 25 people. A few days later, a far weaker tropical storm hits Haiti. Some 2,500 are killed and thousands more displaced.

When natural disasters strike, some people are more vulnerable than others.

What determines different communities' susceptibility to the impact of hazards? Why did Americans get off relatively lightly when Hurricane Ivan hit in September 2004, while Tropical Storm Jeanne proved catastrophic for people in Haiti?

A cocktail of factors makes Haitians more vulnerable, including a lack of early warning systems and extensive deforestation which causes floods and landslides.

At the root of it all is poverty. People in rich countries like the United States generally have better access to the kinds of resources that help prevent disasters becoming crises in the first place, and to cope with them when they do.

Yet the U.S. government's blighted response to Hurricane Katrina, which hit the Gulf coast on Aug. 29, 2005, highlighted how even rich countries can be unprepared for natural hazards, turning them into avoidable disasters.

More than 1,800 people died after flood defences collapsed and another 2.16 million people were evacuated from their homes.

All levels of government soon came under fire from survivors, analysts and the media, who questioned the speed of the response and asked why so many of those left to face the storm were poor and black.

Nonetheless, it is mainly in poor countries that hazards turn into humanitarian disasters by claiming lives and robbing survivors of their livelihoods. A huge 98 percent of people killed or affected by natural disasters live in developing countries.

But it isn't just about economics. Your age and gender may put you at greater risk in a disaster than your neighbours, as can the environment in which you live.

If you know a place is prone to natural hazards such as floods and earthquakes, there are things you can do to prepare for the worst. You can set up early warning systems and organise evacuation procedures. You can build houses strong enough to withstand tremors and put up barriers to keep out the sea.

These measures require adequate resources, effective governance and strong community links.

But now imagine you're a street vendor in the slums of India's Gujarat state after the devastating 2001 earthquake.

Your fragile shanty home didn't stand a chance, and you were seriously injured when it collapsed around you. You're already on the margins of society and have little hope of getting health care. You've lost your only means of eking out a living.

It's not hard to see why poverty and vulnerability are intertwined.

And things are getting worse. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) projects that, by 2025, more than 50 percent of people in developing countries will be vulnerable to extreme-weather hazards like floods and storms.

Disaster experts explain vulnerability in terms of physical, social, economic, political and environmental factors. In developing countries, poverty tends to bring out the worst in all four areas.

A report entitled Before Disaster Strikes by relief agency Tearfund highlights some of the ways this happens.

According to Tearfund, up to half the people living in the largest cities of the developing world - or about a billion people - now live in unplanned squatter settlements.

Many of these slums lack even the most basic infrastructure - health and fire services, dykes and drains, telecommunications, piped water and sanitation - and are therefore ill-equipped to cope when disaster strikes, the report says.

The problems outlined go beyond rapid urbanisation.

• The effects of climate change such as rising sea levels and more intense storms are likely to hit the poor hardest because they tend to live in the worst-affected areas and can least afford to adapt.
• Poor people are often forced to build homes in risky places - the sides of ravines, near volcanoes, on flood plains - because they are marginalised from safe or legal land.
• Poor people are more likely to resort to harmful environmental practices such as deforestation and slash-and-burn agriculture, which increases the risk of flooding and landslides.
• Poor people, often marginalised politically, socially and geographically, may not receive early warning of disasters and lack the voice to protect their interests. People are often very reluctant to evacuate and leave their homes unprotected, for fear of losing their few possessions.

Women

After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) argued that more attention should be given to gender issues in tackling disasters.

"Women are more vulnerable during disasters because they have less access to resources, are victims of the gendered division of labour, and they are primary caregivers to children, the elderly and the disabled," wrote the ILO's Rochelle Jones.

"This means that they are less able to mobilise resources for rehabilitation, more likely to be over-represented in the unemployed following a disaster, and overburdened with domestic responsibilities leaving them with less freedom to pursue sources of income to alleviate their economic burdens."

Women are also vulnerable to sexual violence and exploitation - including trafficking - in the aftermath of disasters.

Children

Experts say children orphaned by disasters bear psychological scars that may never fully heal, including feelings of deep guilt.

"It's not a matter of psychological care - it's a question of survival," Noriko Tarukawa, a Tsukuba university professor who has studied orphans of the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, told Reuters.

Children are also at risk of abuse following disasters. The United Nations says some children orphaned or separated from their parents by Asia's tsunami fell prey to criminal gangs bent on selling them into slavery.

They can also be more at risk of ill-health. In flooding emergencies, children sometimes pick up diseases by playing in contaminated water.

"Their vulnerability means they are among the most at risk of the diseases that now threaten to kill thousands more," says Heather MacLeod, international child protection director for relief charity World Vision.

"And history has shown us that the humanitarian response to a disaster can often increase the vulnerability of children."

Older people

As a group, the elderly are often among the most neglected in disaster relief programmes - yet they are among the most vulnerable.

Up to half of those killed in the 1995 Kobe quake were elderly - a disproportionately high number given that they only made up around 14 percent of the population.

Relief charity HelpAge International says elderly people are likely to be increasingly affected by disasters, with the number of older people in developing countries projected to double to 850 million by 2025. Those 850 million would account for 70 percent of older people worldwide.

"For older people in emergencies, isolation from family and community support sharply increases levels of risk," the agency says in a briefing paper.

"Abandonment, discrimination and self-exclusion are not uncommon. Older people may need special protection in refugee camps and support to cope emotionally - especially when they have suffered repeated loss and displacement throughout their lives."

The disabled

Relief charities such as Handicap International make it their business to help people whose permanent or temporary disabilities have left them marginalised and less able to restore their livelihoods after a disaster.

For example, many Afghan women who suffered crushing injuries in a 2002 earthquake were unable to marry or earn a living.

Other disabilities can make people vulnerable. People with limited mobility were at high risk during the Asian tsunami, simply because it was harder to flee the killer waves.

After disasters, there is a need to get walking aids such as crutches and prosthetics to disabled survivors, yet these items are usually difficult to find in poor countries and are a low priority for most aid agencies.

Such problems are often particularly prevalent in conflict zones like Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, where landmines and unexploded ordnance are rife.

In 2004, researchers at the London-based Overseas Development Institute noted that no less than 140 natural disasters had coincided with complex political emergencies in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Oceania and Europe over the previous five years.

Decades of conflict in Afghanistan meant that when a drought came along in 1999, people's ability to cope was severely limited due to a lack of resources.

And the coincidence of drought and conflict-related displacement in southern Sudan in early 1998 triggered a famine with horrendous malnutrition and mortality rates.

Hazards specialist Ben Wisner makes the case for connecting the dots.

"The reason they (the root causes of vulnerability) cannot be overlooked is that without political stability and good governance, an early warning system and other preventive and preparative measures are unlikely," he says.

Conflict and political emergencies can also make it hard for aid to get to the people who need it most following a natural disaster.

After the Indian Ocean tsunami devastated Indonesia's troubled Aceh province, fears that foreign aid workers could be shot or kidnapped threatened to hinder relief efforts outside Aceh's two biggest cities.

And growing insecurity related to militant violence in Pakistan's northwest, which was devastated by an earthquake in October 2005, has made it difficult for aid agencies to access remote areas. Their compounds have also been attacked with grenades, causing them to suspend activities for short periods.

Despite predictions that global warming will bring more frequent and intense floods, droughts and storms, there is a great deal that governments, aid agencies and local communities can do to reduce the risk of natural hazards becoming disasters.

Earth observation satellites provide data on weather patterns, volcanoes, earthquakes and wildfires. Satellite technology can predict where hurricanes will hit, and when volcanoes might erupt.

But in many developing countries, particularly in Africa, there isn't enough technological infrastructure or weather forecasting capacity to provide accurate information to communities in time for them to act.

Early warning systems can be crucial in alerting communities to upcoming hazards.

Since 1965, 26 countries have collaborated on an early warning tsunami system in the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre located near Honolulu, Hawaii, monitors seismological activity throughout the Pacific Basin.

After an earthquake, tsunami warnings are issued based on the estimated distance any abnormally large waves generated might travel. Alerts are sent to local, state, national and international authorities as well as the media.

The U.S. Coast Guard broadcasts warnings over medium and very high frequency marine radios. Coastal sirens are also used.

Australia and the United States are helping Southeast Asian countries build an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system after a massive earthquake off Indonesia triggered waves that killed 230,000 people in December 2004.

Many of the countries affected by the 2004 tsunami lack the infrastructure that would allow them to benefit from warnings transmitted via television and radio. Many villages that were washed away still don't have modern communications networks.

"I think it would be a massive undertaking to have a full-fledged tsunami warning system that would really be effective in many of these places," Jan Egeland, a former United Nations disaster relief coordinator, told reporters after the tsunami disaster.

One answer is to use low-tech options, such as sirens or megaphones. And in Bangladesh, officials ride around on bicycles to warn local populations about cyclones.

Low-tech solutions that provide the "last mile" of early warning are useful even in wealthy countries. The Alaskan town of Seward, which was hit by a tsunami in 1964, has signs pointing out evacuation routes and brochures in hotels and camp sites to inform tourists about what to do in the event of a disaster.

In Cuba - often cited by experts as exemplary in its use of effective early warnings for hurricanes - the government uses public awareness of risk and a community-based messaging system to reach all areas. Preparedness exercises involve most of the population.

Cuba's system allows for direct communication with government representatives in provinces and municipalities. Public service announcements are also disseminated on the state-owned television and radio stations.

"The Cuban way could easily be applied to other countries with similar economic conditions and even in countries with greater resources that do not manage to protect their population as well as Cuba does," said the head of the U.N. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), Salvano Briceno, in 2004.

"From an early age, all Cubans are taught how to behave as hurricanes approach the island."

According to ISDR, Cuba holds an annual two-day training session to help people prepare for hurricanes.

Two days before a hurricane strikes, entire communities - all versed in interpreting information from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology - begin implementing emergency plans.

Local authorities help the most vulnerable people. Transport is organised, and hospitals and schools are converted into shelters.

Read more on Cuba in this AlertNet article: Talking Point, A Tale of Two Storms.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, countries have banded together to share information.

In 2002 the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) met in Guatemala to adopt shared early warning and emergency response systems to deal with flooding and other natural disasters. ACS countries agreed to develop a system of information exchange and to assess their strengths and weaknesses in dealing with disasters.

In some cases, expertise and resources from developed countries are being harnessed to aid poorer countries in developing their own disaster reduction programmes. In 2004, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation published a disaster-reduction strategy for the Central Asian countries of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which are prone to earthquakes, flooding and landslides.

While these countries already shared bilateral agreements on cooperation in the event of natural disasters, the report found that awareness of disaster risk was very low or non-existent, and should be raised across the region.

Early warning systems are useless without public understanding of how to spot danger. Curiosity about receding seas before a tsunami, or misreading the calm at the eye of a storm can be deadly.

When people do have knowledge about disasters, there is evidence it saves lives. After the Indian Ocean tsunami, the press reported that a 10-year-old British girl, Tilly Smith, saved 100 other tourists in Thailand by recognising the signs of an incoming tsunami from lessons at school.

Journalists have also found countless stories of local people reading the weather right and persuading those around them to seek safe ground.

For tsunamis and hurricanes, the most effective early warning systems include preventive measures along beaches and low-lying areas, communication and regular training.

Experts agree solutions do not need to be expensive. Other cost-effective measures include evacuation planning and rescue training.

Awareness raises the capacity of local people to protect themselves.

In Mali, one of the world's poorest countries, the government has joined forces with the U.N. Development Programme to work with local authorities and civil society groups to develop a rapid response to flooding of the Niger and Senegal rivers. The initiative includes disaster management education and training for communities.

Awareness about environmental degradation also plays a role, although educating a population about the dangers of deforestation, for example, is less likely to result in immediate effects.

In Haiti, where people depend on wood to make charcoal for cooking, cutting down trees is regarded as a necessary evil.

But the result is deadly. On an island stripped of trees and topsoil, heavy rainfall flows unchecked down mountains and hills, resulting in floods and mudslides.

Nearly 3,000 Haitians lost their lives in flooding in 2004. And in 2008, hundreds were killed by floods and mudslides caused by four storms, which also forced hundreds of thousands from their homes.

Read more in this AlertNet explainer: Talking Point: Why is Haiti so prone to disaster?

As in Haiti, people's efforts to eke out a living or merely survive in countries such as Mauritania and Somalia threaten even the best programmes to combat environmental degradation.

In Mauritania, which is threatened by desertification, the government has implemented large-scale reforestation campaigns and water-saving irrigation schemes. It is also fighting illegal wood cutting and the setting of bushfires.

In Somalia, land clearing, over-grazing and the demand for firewood contribute to desertification. As in Haiti, charcoal is the only source of energy for cooking and heating.

In its 2004 World Disasters Report, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) focused on the importance of community resilience in response to disasters. It urged aid organisations to harness the skills and ingenuity of local people affected by disasters and to lay to rest the myth of helpless victims.

The report argued it pays to put communities in charge of defining their own needs and designing their own solutions. Here are some examples:

• When a massive earthquake struck the southern Iranian town of Bam in December 2003, international rescue teams rushed to get there. But 34 international search and rescue teams from 27 countries found just 22 people alive, while local Iranian Red Crescent rescue teams saved 157 lives.

• A six-day search and rescue mission from Europe (five dogs) costs around $50,000. The same money could provide a two-year training programme for three Iranian dogs and handlers.

• Following the 2001 Gujarat earthquake, 9,800 slum-dwelling families in Bhuj city invested $290,000 of their own money in improving their homes and livelihoods, according to the All India Disaster Mitigation Institute.

• In Bangladesh, people bury seeds and non-perishable foods to protect them from rising flood waters, and women store clay cooking stoves stuffed with dry twigs in high places.

• In the Philippines, people have planted mangroves in coastal areas, helped construct seawalls and dykes, sand-bagged sections of rivers, and built evacuation centres.